Facebook IPO：吹大的气球容易爆

zhixun

译言网:Nasca于2012-02-06 23:03:51翻译
Facebook将于周三提交IPO申请（现在已经提交了），而且据说将会寻求千亿美元的市值。这比谷歌市值（1,880亿美元）的一半还多，但Facebook的利润率还不及谷歌的十分之一，它的市值怎么可能达到谷歌的一半呢？

That is a question that any other company might have to answer as it tries to sell stock to the public. But not Facebook. This company is different. No matter what the price, investors will clamor to own a piece of a company that has defined social networking and has, in effect, built its own private Internet, with more than 800 million members.
这个问题是每个代理发售Facebook股票的公司都应该回答的，Facebook本身与之关系不大。不管股价多高，投资者都会争先恐后地想要持有这家公司的股票。毕竟，Facebook是社交网络的缔造者，其网站本身就是一个互联网王国，里面有8亿用户。
Facebook reportedly aims to raise $5 billion (earlier reports guessed $10 billion) in the deal, which would take place in May and rank as one of the biggest IPOs of all time. (See chart.)
据报道，Facebook首次公募的目的是筹资50亿美元（之前的报道猜测是100亿美元），时间或为5月，这将是史上最大的IPO之一。
There are lots of reasons to be wary, including these:
关于这次IPO，有很多地方需要引起投资者的注意，其中一些列举如下：
• Facebook’s operating profit for 2011 is said to have been about $1.5 billion. That’s a respectable profit margin, but by no means outstanding.
·据说Facebook去年的经营利润在15亿美元左右，虽说相当可观但还称不上是巨额利润。
• As Business Insider pointed out, Facebook is seven years old and its revenues lag behind what Google’s were in its seventh year. Moreover, Google was building its business at a time when there was less overall ad spending on the Internet.
·业内人士指出，Facebook已走过第七个年头，但它现在的业绩还不能跟谷歌第七年的时候相比，而且谷歌那时候还没有这么丰厚的广告收入，当时电子广告的投入规模不比现在。
• Google’s answer to Facebook, the Google+ social network, now has 90 million members and is growing quickly. It’s no threat to Facebook today but could be in the future.
·谷歌用以PK Facebook的社交网络Google+目前用户数已达9千万，且增长迅猛。虽说要抗衡Facebook一时半会还做不到，但这也只是时间问题。

But the biggest concern is the $100 billion valuation that Facebook is seeking. To get an idea how outrageous this is, consider that Apple—the biggest, most powerful, most lucrative tech company in the world—sells for just over three times last year’s revenues. If you valued Facebook that way it would be worth only $12.5 billion.
这些都还不是最大的问题，最大的问题是Facebook要寻求千亿美元的市值。为了说明这一点有多疯狂，我们拿苹果做个对比吧。苹果这个目前规模最大、实力最强、吸金最快的科技公司在股市交易中的市值还只是去年营业收入的3倍。按照这个方法计算，Facebook的市值顶多能达到125亿美元。
Do the same calculation with Google, and Facebook is worth $20 billion. Assign the same multiple as Facebook game maker Zynga, which is one of Facebook’s biggest sources of revenue (Facebook skims 30 percent of Zynga’s virtual-goods transactions) and Facebook is worth $25 billion.
参考谷歌的市值收入比，可以算出Facebook的市值为200亿美元。再看看Facebook的游戏供应商Zynga，它是Facebook最主要的收入来源之一（Zynga每一笔网上交易Facebook都会抽取30%的利润）。要是参考该公司的市值收入比，Facebook的市值应为250亿美元。
But maybe you figure that Facebook deserves a better multiple, because it will grow faster than any of these companies. So, fine. Assign Facebook double the multiple of Zynga, and even then it’s only worth $50 billion.
或许你觉得Facebook的市值收入比会更高些，增速也比上述任何一家企业快，那么就算把Zynga的市值收入比翻一倍，算出来的Facebook市值也只有500亿美元。
You get the idea. The idea that Facebook is worth $100 billion, or even $75 billion, is, well, a bit optimistic. Or would be, if there were anything rational about this deal. But there isn’t.
说白了就是Facebook的市值没那么多，千亿美元甚至750亿美元的估价都有些过于乐观了。如果这里面有些合理的成分还好，问题是没有。
Investors will view the Facebook IPO the way Apple fans view every new iPad or iPhone, not so much as a product but as a kind of cultural event.
“投资者对Facebook的IPO有一种情结，好比苹果粉丝会把每一款iPad/iPhone的发布看做一种文化盛会，而不单纯是某种产品的发布会。”
Heck, $50 billion is the valuation that Goldman Sachs and other investors paid for a chunk of Facebook in January of 2011.
去年1月，高盛及其他投资方注资Facebook时，对它的估值正是500亿美元。
Recently, shares in Facebook have been trading on secondary markets at valuations around $80 billion, according to TechCrunch.
据科技博客TechCrunch报道，目前Facebook股票已在二级市场交易，估值约800亿美元。
If Facebook traded at a rational price, those investors would be underwater. But chances are, they’ll be fine. Because Facebook has a great story and an amazing brand. Who hasn’t heard of Facebook? Who doesn’t use it?
假如Facebook的股票以合理的价格交易，这些投资者势必陷入水深火热之中，但这种情况可能不会发生，毕竟，Facebook有着傲人的业绩和强大的品牌效应，谁不知道Facebook呢？又有谁不是常常泡在它的网站上？
For every curmudgeon like me who grumbles about relative valuations, there will be 10 optimists in Silicon Valley who will say Facebook’s valuation makes perfect sense. They’ll remind everyone that Google and Amazon once seemed to be outrageously expensive too, but look at them today. (Just keep in mind that those optimists are probably holding Facebook shares and hoping to flog them off to the public, so of course they'll tell you what a great deal they are.)
像我这种直性子的人每次出来对市场估值牢骚几句，就会有10个硅谷乐天派冒出来说Facebook的估值完全靠谱。他们会到处跟人讲谷歌和亚马逊当初的估值看起来多么吓人，但现在不是好好的么。（遇到这种情况八成是这些人持有Facebook的股份正等着它涨呢。）
The guys in Silicon Valley will say who cares about last year’s revenues, because Facebook is just getting started. And how can you compare Facebook with Google, or any company, for that matter? Facebook is uniquely positioned to cash in on the Internet in ways no other company can match.
硅谷那帮人还会讲：谁管去年的营业收入呢，Facebook又没起步多久，而且，Facebook怎能与谷歌相提并论，它在互联网的扩张势头无可比拟。
Investors will view the Facebook IPO as a once-in-a-lifetime event. They will view this deal the way Apple fans view every new iPad or iPhone, not so much as a product but as a kind of cultural event, something you can’t afford to miss.
投资者会将Facebook的IPO看做人生中一件不可错过的大事，好比苹果粉丝会把每一款iPad/iPhone的发布看做一种文化盛会，而不单纯是某种产品的发布会。
Finally, selling only $5 billion worth of stock, Facebook will constrain supply, which should boost its price. If demand is insane, Facebook can expand the amount of stock to sell.
最后，当Facebook售出价值50亿美元的股票后，它就会限制股票的供应，从而将股价抬高。一旦需求量飙涨得一发不可收拾，Facebook就会增售股票。
The risk is that while Facebook may pull off a $100 billion valuation, it might have trouble going higher. Especially if at some point the irrational exuberance wears off and reality starts to set in.
这样做虽然可能使市值达到千亿美元的预期，但也会不可避免地带来风险，使股价再无上涨的空间，尤其是当畸形繁荣的泡沫破灭而真正的现实浮出水面的时候。
The fault lies with private investors who have driven this company up so much in private markets that it’s been picked clean, leaving little upside for public investors. Something similar happened to Zynga, which had been so overpriced in private funding rounds that its IPO price was actually lower than what it fetched from T. Rowe Price, Fidelity, and others.
造成这种情况的主要罪魁是私募市场的投资者，他们把股价炒得太高，以致公募的时候股价没多少上涨空间。这种情况也在Zynga身上发生过，其公募的股价比私募时售给T. Rowe Price、Fidelity等投资公司的股价低。
That sort of thing isn’t supposed to happen. But this is the brave new world of tech investing. With Facebook, and some of the other new tech companies, the smart money has already got in and got out long before the IPO ever happens.
这种事情照理来说不应该发生，但我们现在所讲的是科技投资这个充满风险的龙潭虎穴。在Facebook这类新兴科技企业的股票交易市场上，有经验的投资者甚至早在企业IPO之前就已经捷足先登好几拨了。

Dan Lyons is technology editor at Newsweek and the creator of Fake Steve Jobs, the persona behind the notorious tech blog The Secret Diary of Steve Jobs. Before joining Newsweek, Lyons spent 10 years at Forbes.
关于作者：丹·莱昂斯是《新闻周刊》的科技编辑，风靡全美的搞笑商业小说《乔布斯的秘密日记》正是出自此人之手，书中创造了假史蒂夫·乔布斯（Fake Steve Jobs）这个臭名昭著的经典角色。加入《新闻周刊》的编辑团队之前，莱昂斯为《福布斯》工作了十年。