分析：为何巴西航空工业的窄体机策略高明？

zhixun

译言网:curthon于2011-12-18 16:06:39翻译
巴西航空工业公司不像庞巴迪一样同干线机制造商针锋相对而是专注于研发增强型，更换引擎的E-Jet飞机的决定得到了分析湿及竞争对手的欢迎。
The Brazilian airframer had been evaluating a potential new five-abreast design to compete in the 130- to 160-seat segment. It says it was encouraged to pursue the re-engining option instead having seen how the concept has been accepted by the market, evidenced by the runaway success of Airbus and Boeing's upgraded single-aisles, the A320neo and 737 Max respectively.
巴西制造商评估过了潜在的5座并排设计以应对130到160座位市场的竞争。该公司表示对最终选择了更新引擎的策略感到欣慰，波音和空客的升级版单通道客机A320neo和737Max的大获全胜证明市场认可更新引擎的飞机。
"We have seen that with what Airbus and Boeing are doing with the A320neo and 737 Max, the market has accepted re-engining," Eduardo Munhos de Campos, Embraer vice-president for airline marketing in Latin America and the Caribbean, said during the ALTA Airline Leaders Forum in Rio de Janeiro. He added that the business case for re-engining is "more sound with better returns".
“我们已经看到波音和空客的737Max和A320neo证明市场已经接受了更新引擎的做法，”巴西航空工业拉美及加勒比航线市场部副总裁Eduardo Munhos de Campos在里约热内卢举行的ALTA航空领导人论坛上说道。他还补充说更新引擎策略“回报更好”。

© AirTeamImages.com
图片来源： AirTeamImages.com
Powerplant selection will be crucial to upgrading the twinjet family
引擎的选择对机型的升级至关重要
Bombardier is "very pleased" with the Embraer decision, as it means it will not face an all-new rival to the 110- to 145-seat CSeries, which is due to debut in late 2013. "It confirms yet again that we will be the only one who takes the bold step of creating a 100% new airplane in this market segment that needs a new-generation airplane to replace some of the older aircraft," said Philippe Poutissou, vice-president for marketing at Bombardier Commercial Aircraft.
庞巴迪对巴西航空工业的决定“非常高兴”，因为这将意味着其计划2013年首飞的110到145座位的C系列客机将不会面对全新机型的竞争。“这就再一次确定了我们将是唯一大胆地研制一架百分百新飞机的公司以满足相应市场的飞机更新换代，”庞巴迪商用飞机市场部副总裁 Philippe Poutissou说道。
"Secondly, it points to Embraer's recognition that if they want to be competitive in the future, they need to do something [with the E-Jet]."
“其次，这显示了巴西航空工业意识到若是他们想要在将来有竞争力的话他们需要（在E-Jet上）做些什么。”
DEEP POCKETS
财力
Analyst Les Weal, director of valuations and appraisals at Flightglobal's data and consultancy arm Ascend, thinks Embraer's decision is the right one. "Taking on Airbus and Boeing is for the brave or those with very deep pockets," he said. "Life has just got tougher for the competition, such as the Mitsubishi MRJ and CSeries CS100."
飞行国际航升数据咨询部评估与估值主任分析师Les Weal认为巴西航空工业的决定是正确的。“和波音和空客竞争要么是有魄力要么是有财力，”他讲到。“像三菱重工的MRJ和C系列的CS100的进入，竞争只会变得越发残酷。”
Embraer has sold 1,100 E-Jets and delivered about 800 aircraft. The backlog represents around three years' production at current output rates. "The market has embraced E-Jets and it appears that airlines are content with re- engined products," said Weal.
巴西航空工业已经卖出了1100架E-Jet飞机并交付了约800架。以当前的出货率大约三年会出现积压。“市场已经欣然接受了E-Jet并且航空公司表现出对引擎更新的产品很满意。”Weal说道。
Teal Group's vice-president of analysis Richard Aboulafia believes there was never a case for Embraer to develop an all-new airliner, but that the re-engining plan is a smart one. "This will destroy the CS100 and damage the CS300, and may even impact the 737-7 and A319neo," he said.
蒂尔集团分析副总裁Richard Aboulafia相信巴西航空工业不会有机会去研发全新的机型，但是引擎更新计划是明智之举。“这将摧毁CS100并侵害到CS300，可能甚至会影响到737-7和A319neo，”他表示。
"Even the baseline [Embraer] 190 has a lower weight per seat than the CS100. Couple that with a similar engine getting better performance and possibly similar range, which would be even more concerning. Add all that together and the argument for the CSeries goes away.
甚至基本型号190的单位座位重量比CS100都低。加上差不多的更加优异的引擎和更被关心的差不离的航程。所有因素加起来C系列的优势就不复存在了。
"Right now, Bombardier's main advantage is timing and that, by definition, is perishable. It's also pretty clear that [Bombardier] is going to be late [with the CSeries]," Aboulafia added.
“现在庞巴迪最主要的优势是交付时间当然这优势是很容易失去的。很明显（庞巴迪）(C系列）飞机将会拖期，” Aboulafia补充道。
With Embraer aiming for service entry of a re-engined E-Jet in late 2017 or early 2018, it intends to finalise its strategic direction by early next year, said Munhos de Campos. It will then begin defining the upgrades. Central to this will be selection of an engine to replace the General Electric CF34. "The engines that the manufacturers have available are all offering around 15% lower fuel burn," her said.
Munhos de Campos表示巴西航空工业旨在于2017年底或2018年交付其引擎更新的E-Jet，这也就意味着在明年初就要做最后的决策。接着将开始着手升级的计划。升级计划的重点在于新引擎的选择以替换掉通用的CF34引擎。“现有的可替换引擎都会降低大约15%的油耗，”她表示。
Other enhancements under evaluation include a composite fuselage - although aluminium supplier Alcoa has just agreed with Embraer to support "development of new high-performance metallic fuselage and wing solutions" - and a possible stretch beyond the 110- to 120-seat Embraer 195.
正在评估的其他升级包括有复合材料机身——虽然铝合金供应商美国铝业已经同巴西航空工业签署了“开发新型高性能金属机身及机翼的解决方案”——还包括延展110到120座的E195客机的可能。
The E-Jet family, which straddles the 70- to 120-seat sector, has a four-abreast cabin. Embraer had been considering a large fuselage cross-section for the all-new aircraft to enable a five-abreast configuration like the CSeries, more suited to a family in the 130- to 160-seat sector.
E-Jet系列机型介于70到120座，拥有四座并排的内饰。巴西航空工业已正在考虑为其全新飞机设计一个大的机身横截面积以容纳像C系列客机一样的五座并排的组合，更适应130到160座市场。
Speaking at the Dubai air show, Embraer's commercial aviation president Paulo Cesar Souza e Silva said that while GE was the "natural incumbent" engine provider, the airframer is keen to talk to other suppliers "to see what they're offering".
巴西航空工业商业飞机总裁Paulo Cesar Souza e Silva 在迪拜空展上发言时表示虽然通用是“现任顺理成章的”引擎供应商，公司还是极想要同其他供应商接触“看看他们能给我们带来什么”。
ALTERNATIVE POWER
可更换的引擎
While GE is developing an advanced turbofan in the same power class as the E-Jet's CF34-10, called "Passport", Ascend senior analyst George Dimitroff sees Pratt & Whitney's PW1000G geared turbofan as a potential candidate, with the smallest variant of the engine that powers the MRJ.
虽然通用正在研发一款同E-Jet现有的CF34-10同级别的先进风扇发动机，被称为“护照”，航升首席分析师George Dimitroff认为普惠公司作为MRJ飞机引擎的PW1000G涡轮风扇发动机稍作改进将是潜在选择。
"The CF34-10E is 57in [145cm] in diameter, the PW1215/1217G is actually 1in smaller at 56in," he said. "With some space to spare under the wing the engine could even grow a little, which might improve the efficiency over the MRJ."
“CF34-10为57英寸的直径（145厘米），PW1215/1217G正好小一英寸56英寸，”他说道。“为在机翼下能有些剩余空间，发动机甚至要更小点，这可以改善MRJ飞机的性能。”
Carriers, including Brazilian E-Jet operator Azul, have expressed interest in a re-engined version. Azul does not plan orders for new aircraft until 2015, said chief David Neeleman, giving it the option of considering the modified type.
包括拥有E-Jet飞机的阿苏尔航空公司在内，航空公司都展现出对于引擎升级版本的兴趣。阿苏尔航空公司总裁David Neeleman表示在2015年前并没有计划订购新飞机，这只是个候补选择。